BBC

Mentafsir Pesanan Taliban

(Decoding Taleban's message)

Oleh: Daniel Lak (Wartawan di sempadan Pakistan Afghanistan)

Cadangan Duta Taliban di Islamabad betapa Osama bin Laden berada di bawah kawalan Pentadbiran Taliban telah ditolak oleh ahli-ahli koalisi anti-keganasan yang diketuai oleh Washington.

Namun di belakang tabir, Amerika tentu mahu mengetahui apa sebenarnya yang ditawarkan oleh duta itu, dan apa maksudnya di sebalik pesanan kepada para wartawan di ibu negara Pakistan itu.

Oleh ketiadaan hubungan terus antara Amerika dan pentadbiran Taliban, terpulang kepada Pakistan untuk menjadi pengantara ataupun mendapatkan penjelasan daripada kata-kata duta itu.

Tidak disangsikan kenapa Pakistan yang merupakan hanya satu-satunya negara yang mempunyai hubungan diplomatik dengan militia pelajar di Kandahar dan Kabul, sedang mendapatkan penjelasan itu.

Rumusan Pelbagai

Memang terdapat banyak cara mengamati kata-kata duta Taliban itu.

Perkara ini memang tidak mungkin kerana pihak Taliban tidak akan mendapat apa-apa kedegilan terbuka puak Washington. Duta Zeef berkemungkinan menyebut pesanannya secara berkias untuk pelbagai pihak.

Dia mungkin menyindir Osama bin Laden betapa masa depannya perlu dirundingkan.

Duta itu ada menyoal orang Amerika, dan ia seolah-olah mengandungi nada merayu, agar mulakan berunding dengan pentadbiran Taliban, 'kerana inilah yang akan menghasilkan sesuatu yang menyenangkan'.

Dalam hal ini, dia memang menyuarakan pendapatnya kepada rakyat Amerika, juga. Pendapatnya itu mungkin juga bercorak memperkuatkan permintaan Amerika supaya Osama bin Laden diserahkan kepada mereka secepat mungkin. (Awas: ini perangkap barat cuba memutar-belitkan otak umat Islam dalam perkara ini secara halus - penterjemah)

Berpecah-nya Kumpulan Taliban

Jawapan Taliban itu tidak memuaskan kerajaan sekutu, dan telahpun ditolak sebagai satu syarat perundingan. Namun ia merupakan satu permulaan.

Satu soalan yang dipertikaikan: Apakah Mullah Zaleef bersuara bagi pihak keseluruhan pertubuhan Taliban? Para pemerhati berkata, bahawa duta di Pakistan itu berpendirian sederhana, dan kata-katanya itu boleh dilihat sebagai petanda adanya sedikit tidak sefahaman dengan puak yang berkeras.

Pembabitan Mullah Omar, sebagai pemimpin utama Taliban, boleh mengakhiri sebarang ketidak-sepakatan, ataupun seumpamanya kerana beliau dianggap oleh kesseluruhan pertubuhan Taliban sebagai Amir-ul-Mumineen, ketua ulung perjuangann itu yang menepati amalan agama Islam.

Perpecahan dalam Taliban memang sudah lama didesas-desuskan sebelum itu. Pada masa dulu, kerajaan yang berpusat di Kabul, memang dilihat sebagai bersikap sederhana, tidak bergitu taksub dengan kesucian agama, berbanding dengan pasukan yang berpangkalan di Kandahar.

Namun, tidak banyak negara yang mempunyai hubungan diplomatik dengan Taliban, perisikan mengenai aktiviti mereka secara terperinci memang sukar diketahui.

Perubahan Baru

Tentu kerajaan Pakistan banyak mengetahui perkara ini, kerana pertubuhan perisikan (Pakistan) telah memainkan peranan utama dalam penubuhan Taliban dan kejayaan awalannya. Namun hingga kini, tidak ada sesiapa yang menyebut apakah jenis perisikan yang telah dihantar oleh Pakistan kepada Washington.

Yang amat jelas ialah, Mullah Zaleef telah menyuuarakan beberapa jenis cadangan yang menyamai keadaan yang sungguh berbahaya di wilayah itu. Dalam banyak hal, inilah keadaan sebenar di Afghanistan.

Inilah sebuah negara yang memberikan keutamaan kepada perundingan berbanding apa jenis kegiatan yang lain.

Selain syarat perundangan Islam, tidak banyak perkara lain yang pernah terpahat di batu. Tetapi, kehendak Amerika bercorak seolah-olah begitu.

Amerika tidak mengingini perundingan; mereka mendesak - dan menjanjikan serang balas yang khusus seandainya permintaan mereka tidak diperkenankan. Inilah yang belum lagi difahami oleh kumpulan Taliban.

Tamat.

Terjemahan: SPAR

Asal:

BBC News Online 1 Oct. 2001

Analysis: Decoding Taleban's message

By Daniel Lak

The suggestion by the Taleban ambassador in Islamabad that Osama Bin Laden is in the country and under his group's "control" has already been rejected by members of the anti-terror coalition headed by Washington.

But behind the scenes, the Americans will probably be keen to know just what the ambassador was offering, or indeed, what he meant by his somewhat cryptic remarks to reporters in the Pakistani capital.

Afghanistan is a country and a society that values negotiations above many other things.

Since there are no direct contacts at all between the US and the Taleban regime, Pakistan will have to be the conduit for any clarifications or elaboration on the ambassador's words.

No doubt the Pakistanis, as the only country with diplomatic ties with the students' militia in Kandahar and Kabul, are already seeking those clarifications.

Multiple conclusions

There are many ways of looking at what the ambassador said.

First and foremost, he could simply be saying to the US that Osama Bin Laden is under Taleban protection and the Americans can do their worst.

Afghanistan has little to gain from further defiance

That is unlikely as the Taleban have little to gain from yet more open defiance of Washington.

Ambassador Zaeef could be sending a coded message to a variety of sources.

He could be telling Osama Bin Laden that his future is up for negotiation.

The ambassador did ask the Americans, and it almost seems in a pleading tone, to start talks with the Taleban "because this might produce a good result".

In this case, he is obviously talking to the Americans as well.

His words would then represent an incremental movement towards Washington's demand that Bin Laden be handed over to them immediately.

Taleban split

It is far short of what the anti-terror coalition governments want, and it is already been rejected as a bargaining position. But it is movement.

The situation is volatile and dangerous

Another intriguing question is whether or not Mullah Zaeef is speaking for the entire Taleban movement.

Observers say the ambassador in Pakistan is on the moderate wing of the Taleban, and his words could be seen as a signal of some disagreement with hard-liners.

The intervention of Mullah Omar, the Taleban leader, could end any disunity of that sort since he is regarded across the spectrum of the movement as Amir al-Mumineen, the commander of the faithful, with its leadership endorsed by Islam.

Splits in the Taleban leadership have been suggested before.

In the past, the Kabul-based Taleban government was seen as more moderate, less obsessed with Islamic purity, than its counterpart in Kandahar.

But since so few countries have spent any time diplomatically with the Taleban, intelligence about their inner workings is thin on the ground.

New variables

The Pakistanis must be aware of a great deal, given that their intelligence agencies played a key role in the group's founding and early successes.

But no one is divulging what, if anything, Pakistan has passed on to Washington or its allies.

The US is in no mood to negotiate

One thing is certain. Mullah Zaeef has unleashed a new set of variables into the volatile and dangerous situation in his region. This is, in many way, a situation typical of Afghanistan.

It is a country and a society that values negotiations above many other things.

Very little, outside of the strictures of Islam, is set in stone. But America's demands seem to be.

They are not negotiating; they are demanding - and promising certain retaliation if they don't get their way. The Taliban seem not yet to have acknowledged that.