http://www.atimes.com/se-asia/DA23Ae01.html

January 23, 2002

DIRE STRAITS

A win in less than inspiring fashion

By Anil Netto

PENANG - Malaysia's ruling coalition won a hotly contested by-election on the weekend with a bigger majority than it previously held, but amid lingering suspicions over busloads of out-of-town passengers, assaults on opposition campaign workers and concerns over postal balloting.

The Barisan Nasional (BN) party, led by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, retained the tiny state seat of Indera Kayangan in northern Perlis on Saturday when its candidate from the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), Oui Ah Lan, defeated community leader Khoo Yang Chong from the opposition National Justice Party (Keadilan). Former principal Oui raised the BN's winning majority to 2,592 votes, up from the 1,974 winning margin achieved in the 1999 general elections. The seat had fallen vacant on December 19 following the death of the MCA incumbent due to colon cancer.

Even though the by-election would not have changed the balance of power in Perlis, the BN appeared determined to deliver a knockout blow to Keadilan, which had been stumbling after a string of poll defeats since a stunning by-election upset win in November 2000. But it became increasingly clear that a simple win was not going to be enough for the BN as a reduced BN majority would have been interpreted as a moral victory for Keadilan. The awesome BN campaign machinery - the huge human and financial resources at its disposal - was focused on Indera Kayangan, pitted against Keadilan's weak organizational structure, poor local support base and limited budget. By polling day, the BN was already predicting a bigger majority - and it came to pass.

Analysts and the media have been quick to suggest that the events of September 11 and concerns about Islamic extremism played a key role in swinging voters to the ruling coalition. But voting patterns suggest that non-Muslims may not have been all that influenced despite the propaganda bombardment. The pullout of the Chinese-based Democratic Action Party (DAP) from the opposition alliance soon after September 11 appeared to have little impact although the DAP's presence would have given the campaign a boost.

Instead, the DAP stayed away but made its presence felt by continually reminding voters about the Islamic state issue. But their remarks at times felt like intra-opposition sniping that could not have helped Keadilan. Nonetheless, Keadilan claimed that it had actually raised its share of ethnic Chinese votes from some 10 percent to about 30 percent. In this, it was aided by the presence of vernacular Chinese education lobby groups from Kuala Lumpur as well as media activists protesting against the MCA's takeover of two relatively independent Chinese-language newspapers.

Keadilan was probably let down by a slide in ethnic Malay support. For one thing, the seething anger over the jailing and assault of ex-deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim appears to have subsided somewhat. Opposition campaigners also complained that they were chased away from several ethnic Malay areas when they tried to campaign in those areas.

Meanwhile, doubts continue to linger over the postal balloting by security personnel. Out of the total valid votes of 5,966 cast for the BN and Keadilan, postal ballots comprised 722 votes or a significant 12 percent of votes cast. Of these 722 votes, Keadilan could only muster 22 votes or 3 percent. That's a huge variance from Keadilan's overall 32 percent share of the total votes cast (including postal ballots).

In the past, election observers have expressed concerns over the lack of transparency surrounding postal balloting. Critics have argued that there is no reason why security personnel cannot cast their ballots like everyone else as the historical reasons for using postal ballots may no longer be present. And once again, controversy swirled around several buses from out-of-town arriving in the constituency on polling day. The opposition alleged the buses were bringing in phantom voters. In the Lunas by-election in November 1990, opposition members stopped 12 buses carrying BN supporters, suspected to be phantom voters, from entering the constituency.

This time, opposition supporters reportedly spotted several suspicious-looking buses approaching the area on polling day. Three of the buses were taken to the police station. An UMNO state assembly member from Selangor, who had arranged the trip, was among the 90 passengers. "We came here to watch the by-election, visit Kangar [capital of Perlis] and do some window-shopping," she told reporters. "There were no phantom voters in the buses."

Keadilan vice president Azmin Ali alleged that his party workers had trailed two BN vehicles that had ferried passengers from the buses to the voting centers. The Election Commission later described as "nonsense" the claims of the opposition that there were phantom voters. But disturbingly, the campaign was marred by several cases of intimidation and assault against opposition campaign workers. An unusual number of them were assaulted or put in fear of violence during the campaign period. "I personally know of six opposition campaigners who had been assaulted - two of them suffered head injuries - and a seventh was a policeman who had been punched," said a senior Keadilan leader. He also said that about half a dozen opposition campaigners including senior leaders had their cars damaged or windscreens smashed in the run-up to polling day.

The national mainstream media were lopsided in their reporting with the opposition campaign getting little positive coverage. Indeed, the almost total control of the mainstream media in itself makes it an uphill task for the opposition to win any local election. Worse, voters were pounded daily with ominous images of war and violence as the BN equated the opposition with Taliban-style rule. National television stations carried propaganda clips juxtaposing images of opposition leaders with slow-motion footage of turbaned Afghan gunman executing a kneeling, burqa-clad woman.

The arrests of more alleged members of the so-called Malaysian Mujahidin (or Militant) Group (KMM) added to the uncertainty. About a week before nomination day for the by-election, 15 alleged KMM members were detained under the feared Internal Security Act. Another seven arrests were reported on polling day.

With Anwar still in jail (his appeal to the Federal Court, originally scheduled less than a week before polling, has been postponed to February 4), access to the mainstream media all but denied, and tight restrictions on public gatherings, Keadilan will find it hard to reach out to voters. It will have to find more creative methods, strengthen its organizational structure and achieve opposition unity if it intends to give the BN a run for its money.