Pravda.Ru

Mainan Orang Minyak

(The Game People Play With Oil)

Oleh: Andrey Cherkasov:

Permainan yang melibatkan harga minyak yang menjadi drama hebat diseluruh dunia sudah memakan masa satu bulan. Nampaknya permainan ini akan dimenangi oleh mereka yang mengeluarkan minyak. Di bawah ini ialah sedikit kisah mengenai perkara ini.

Harga minyak mentah (krud) telah menurun secara mendadak di pasaran saham Amerika dan Eropah sejak November. Harga merudum di bawah $15 setong (per barrel). Ada banyak penyebab kejatuhan harga itu.tetapi pihak media massa negara demokrasi 'yang dikatakan boeh dipercayai itu' telah menyebut hanya dua faktor sebagai penyebabnya: (a) keadaan kurang stabil diTimur Tengah dan (b) operasi anti pengganas di Afghanistan yang diusahakan oleh Amerika. Memang sukar mempercayai saranan ini kerana alasan itu seharusnya mencetuskan kenaikan harga minyak. Apabila minyak berkurangan tentulah harganya naik mencanak. Negara OPEC menyelesaikan masalah begini dengan meminta jsabaik negara pengeluar yang lain (bukan anggota OPEC) agar mengurangkan pengeluaran mereka. Cadangan ini tidak disetujui oleh kerajaan Russia. Perdana menteri Michael Kaasyanov mendakwa bahawa perbelanjaan negara tidak akan terjejas seandainya satu tong minyak krud beharga cuma sepuluh dollar. Sekali lagi sukar memahami logik pendapat itu. Dari manakah Russia mahu mencekau wang seandainya keseluruhan perbelanjaan negara bergantung pada pengekspotan minyak.

Nampaknya matlamat utama kerajaan Ksayanov ialah mengeluarkan minyak untuk dihantar ke Eropah, sambil menanggung kerugian. Negara OPEC juga sedar, ketika mereka mengugut Russia dengan meningkatkan pengeluaran minyak mereka, bererti harga minyak berkemungkinan jatuh kurang dari sepuluh dollar setong. Ini akan menghancurkan ekonomi Russia yang amat bergantung kepada industri petrodollar.

Pertelagahan itu berjalan selama satu bulan. Akhirnya, timbalan perdana menteri Russia Aleyksey Kudrin, mengumumkan rencana Russia untuk mengurangkan pengekspotan minyak mentah ke pasaran dunia sebanyak 50,000 tong setiap hari.Tetapi,harga minyak semakin menggelonsor setiap hari. Ini menyebabkan satu kumpulan peniaga minyak yang dihormati di Russia yang diketuai oleh presiden LUKOIL, Vagyt Alekperov, bertemu dengan Presiden Putin. Selepas pertemuanitu mereka berbincang pula dengan Perdana Menteri Kasyanov. Kemudian kerajaan Russia mengumumkan bahawa pengekspotan minyak dikurang sebanyak 150,000 tong setiap hari mulai Janurai hingga Mach 2002. Dengan pantas ini menyebabkan harga minyak naik mencanak sehingga melepas duapuluh dollar setong. Negara OPEC mengalu-alukan tindakan itu, sambil memperakukan kekuatan mereka untuk mengawal harga minyak. Mereka sudah merancang untuk mengurangkan pengeluaran mereka sehingga 150,000 tong setiaphari.

Jabatan akhbar kerajaan telah mengeluarkan kenyataan mereka mengenai perkara ini. Russia bersedia berdialog bukan sahaja dengan OPEC tetapi dengan pembeli utama minyak. Mereka bersedia mengurangkan lagi keluaran minyak mereka, bergantung kepada keadaan pasaran minyak mentah.

Inilah kisahnya. Sebab utama harga minyak menurun adalah wujudnya krisis ekonomi di Eropah Barat dan Amerika. Bukannya kisah Amerika meraba Afghanistan untuk menghambat Osama bin Laden, seperti yang mereka mahu kita percaya. Budak kecil pun tahu, semua kelengakapan tentera menggunakan lebih banyak minyak ketika berperang, berbanding waktu damai. Dengan itu operasi Amerika di Afghanistan boleh menaikkan lagi harga minyak dan bukan membuatkan harga turun.

Demikianlah, apabila taikun petrolium Russia, meyakinkan kerajaan dan peresiden mereka agar tidak mendesak terhadap mengurangkan pengeluaran Russia, tetapi membincangkan pengurangan pengekspotan mereka. Inilah satu keputusan yang baik. Untuk mengurangkan pengeluaran sebanyak 150,000 tong sehari dimusim sejuk ini mempunyai risiko bekalan minyak di Russia. Ini bermakna kita perlu memikirkan kepentingan sendiri dulu dalam pasaran dan bukan memikirkan untuk mempercayainya segala perkara yang disoggokkan oleh Amerika.

Diterjemahkan ke bahasa Inggeris oleh Dmitry Sudakov.

Tamat

Terjemahan: SPAR

Asal:

8:42 2001-12-11

ANDREY CHERKASOV: THE GAME PEOPLE PLAY WITH OIL

The dramatic games around the world price of oil have been lasting for a month already, and it seems that they will be won by those who produce oil. Here is a short background of the situation.

The price of crude dropped suddenly on the stock exchanges of America and Europe in the beginning of November: the price fell below $15 per barrel. There were several reasons to explain the drop, but our ?most trustworthy and democratic mass media? named the only two: the instability in the Middle East and the anti-terrorist operation of the USA in Afghanistan. It is impossible to believe this assertion, for these reasons should explain an increase in the price of oil. If there is less oil, then it should cost more. The OPEC countries addressed other oil-producing states with a request to decrease the volume of oil extraction. This suggestion, however, was not approved of by the Russian government. Premier Mikhail Kasyanov claimed that the country?s budget would not be touched even if one barrel of oil cost only ten dollars. It is hard to understand his logic here. Where was the Russian budget going to get the money from if the budget was presumably based on the export of oil.

It looks like the only objective for Kasyanov?s government was to deliver oil to the West, at any price, ignoring Russia?s losses. The OPEC countries also realize this very well, as they are threatening Russia with a rise in the extraction of their own oil, which implies the reduction of the oil price down to the level of ten dollars per barrel. This would mean the collapse of the entire Russian economy, which is relying on the petrodollar.

This struggle lasted for a month. Finally, the Russian vice-premier of the Russian government, Aleksey Kudrin, stated that Russia was decreasing its export of crude export to the world market by 50 thousand barrels a day. However, the world price on oil was still decreasing down. Therefore, a group of our most respectable petroleum tycoons, LUKOIL?s president Vagyt Alekperov first and foremost, had a meeting with President Putin. After the meeting with the president, they had a meeting with Premier Kasyanov, and the Russian government announced that Russia's export would be cut by 150 thousand barrels a day during the period January to March of the year 2002. The oil price jumped up to the level of $20 per barrel immediately after that announcement. OPEC countries welcomed the decision, having confirmed their might in the stabilization of the prices: they were going to reduce their oil extraction by 1.5 million barrels daily.

The governmental press departments released their statements and comments on the score, saying Russia would work in the form of a dialogue not only with the OPEC countries, but also with the leading purchasers of oil. It was also added that the further reduction of the Russian export was also possible too, depending on the situation on the world crude market.

This is what it is all about. The main reason of the oil price reduction is the economic crisis in Western Europe and America, not a chase after Bin Laden, as they tried to convince us before. Even a child can understand that military hardware uses much more oil during war than during the time of peace and that the Afghani operation could only raise the oil price, but never reduce it.

Thus, the Russian petroleum tycoons convinced both the government and the president not to insist on the reduction of the Russian extraction, but to talk about the reduction of the export. This was a wise decision to make. To cut the oil extraction by 150 thousand barrels a day during the winter time has a very big risk of creating a fuel-supply problem in Russia. Well, it has been proven again that you must think of yourself on the market and not about the things that America tells you.

Andrey Cherkasov PRAVDA.Ru

Translated by Dmitry Sudakov