http://www.asiaweek.com/asiaweek/magazine/ dateline/0,8782,179091,00.html

OCTOBER 19, 2001

Counter Strikes

America has launched air raids against Afghanistan in a bid to hit back at terrorist leader Osama bin Laden. The assault could alienate moderate Muslims, destabilize allies in Asia - even polarize the world

By SANGWON SUH

It seems a classic case of David versus Goliath. On one side is a formidable array of weapons showcasing U.S. military might: B-1, B-2 and B-52 bombers; F-14 and F/A-18 fighters; Tomahawk cruise missiles - all capable of turning any given target into a fiery hellhole. On the other side is terrorist leader Osama bin Laden, seemingly armed with little more than an AK-47 assault rifle. Videotaped somewhere in the barren mountains of Afghanistan with a small coterie of close comrades, bin Laden was playing up his underdog status. "I swear by God, who has elevated the skies without pillars," he declared defiantly, "neither America nor the people who live in it will dream of security before we live it in Palestine, and not before all the infidel armies leave the land of [the Prophet] Muhammad."

The balance of power, however, may not be as skewed as it appears. What bin Laden, who is wanted by the U.S. in connection with the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, lacks in military hardware, he is making up for in public opinion. Almost a month after the terrorist attacks killed more than 6,000 civilians, the U.S. last week struck back, pounding Afghanistan with successive barrages of bombs and missiles. They failed to hit bin Laden. Muslim extremists around the world loudly condemned the U.S. and voiced support for the Saudi-born terrorist. In Indonesia, groups of protesters tried to storm the U.S. embassy by charging the barbed-wire barricade that had been set up outside. The radical Islamic Defenders Front, which claims to have 1,500 followers, threatened to attack Americans and "expel Jews." "Foreigners must leave the country or face the consequences," says the group's commander Mohammad Sidiq.

Anti-U.S. feelings aren't limited to Asia's radical fringe. Afghanistan's Taliban regime, which has been sheltering bin Laden, claimed that more than 70 civilians had been killed by Oct. 10 by the American bombs, and bin Laden declared that the U.S. had come out to "fight Islam." As a result, the sentiments of mainstream Muslims are also turning - if not for bin Laden, then against America. Malaysian oppositionist Chandra Muzaffar, a liberal Muslim, warned that U.S. attacks will lead to more violence. "The American people should realize this: The peace and security that they desire so much at this moment is only possible if other people can also live in peace and security."

The rise of anti-Americanism in predominantly Muslim countries could have a destabilizing influence in the region. Grabbing the initiative, extremists already are trying to pressure their governments. Even the moderates are taking sides. Indonesia's Association of Muslim Ulemas, a mainstream group, called on the government to suspend diplomatic ties with the U.S. until it stops attacking Afghanistan. Immediately after the terrorist attacks, Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri threw her support behind the U.S. Now, in the face of growing opposition, Megawati is toning down her approval. After a late-night cabinet meeting debate last week, the government expressed "deep concern" over civilian casualties, but warned Indonesians "not to overreact in expressing their sympathies for the Afghan people." Suddenly, the world seems in danger of polarizing into two camps - Muslim and non-Muslim. If that happens, bin Laden, who has been calling Muslims to rise up against the West, will have won his struggle.

Mindful of such a scenario, the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush has been at pains to insist that the current campaign is not a war against Islam or ordinary Afghans, but an effort to bring down bin Laden and the fundamentalist Taliban regime. The attacks have targeted only military bases, airfields and training camps in and around major cities like Kabul, the capital, and Kandahar, which serves as the Taliban's headquarters. The U.S. has also allowed for airdrops of food, including beans and peanut butter, for Afghans in territories held by Northern Alliance rebels who have been waging a civil war against the Taliban. (This effort, however, has been derided by international relief agencies as little more than a propaganda ploy.)

But inevitably, however much the attacks have weakened the Taliban's military strength, they are also wreaking havoc on the lives of innocent civilians. Tens of thousands have fled to the countryside or to neighboring states, while those remaining are at the mercy of incoming missiles. One of the sites hit was the office of a U.N.-backed mine-clearing agency in Kabul. Four were killed. "Many cannot afford to leave and live in fear," says an Afghan freelance reporter in Kandahar. "People are confused - they don't understand why they are being attacked."

The human suffering is already testing the support of Asian nations. Beijing said civilian casualties must be avoided. Even Thailand, predominantly Buddhist and traditionally a staunch ally of the U.S., has been muted in its support of the air raids. "I'm not happy with the way the Americans are handling this," says Pranee Thiparat, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "The way they are bombing Afghanistan - it's so emotional, and like a media operation. It's really maddening.".

Given that non-Muslim Asians feel this way, it is hardly surprising that Muslims, even those far removed from the intrigues of Central Asia, are expressing doubts about the U.S. mission. Says Bangkok-based Muslim businessman Khalid Hashim: "If you define terrorism as in the Oxford dictionary, then you will find that what the Americans are doing in Afghanistan amounts to state-sponsored terrorism. There's no other name for it." Benjamin Lanto, a Muslim lawyer from the Philippines, feels empathy for the Afghans, including the Taliban, even though he thinks the bombings are justified. "Muslims worldwide are part of an ummah - one body," he says. "If the hand feels pain, the entire body feels it."

In the meantime, the air strikes have also given Muslim extremists a useful stick with which to beat their favorite enemy - and to pursue their political agenda at home. In Pakistan, pro-Taliban militant groups took to the streets - often violently - against both the U.S. and the government of Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who has voiced support for the U.S. and let the Americans use Pakistani airspace for their attacks. "Pakistanis are not radical people, but the sentiment now is more toward a holy war [against the West]," says Ijaz Ul Haq, vice president of the Pakistan Muslim League, a moderate political umbrella organization. For now, Musharraf seems to have gained the upper hand against his opponents. He has curbed dissent by placing a key militant cleric under house arrest, sidelining two pro-Taliban generals and replacing Lt.-Gen. Mahmood Ahmad, the hard-line intelligence chief, with a moderate. But if the war in Afghanistan runs into months, it could stir serious discontent in Pakistan and threaten Musharraf's government.

Similarly, Indonesia's Megawati is facing increasingly noisy Islamic opposition, particularly from radical Islamic groups who distrust her - and have fomented violence against Christians across Indonesia. But according to Republika newspaper, ordinary Indonesians also oppose the U.S. assault; some 34.4% of Indonesians are convinced that Jews, not Muslims, were behind the terrorist attacks on the U.S. "Radicals have gained an upper hand," says former defense minister Juwono Sudarsono. Muslim parties, whose support Megawati needs in parliament, will likely use the current situation to undercut her position for future political gain. Says Jakarta-based political risk analyst Ken Conboy:

"They figure, just let her flounder for a while."

In Malaysia, the government has too tight a lid on the opposition for any violent protests to erupt. But Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, a secular Muslim whose main domestic opposition is an Islamic party, avoided offering support for the war on terrorism. Instead, he warned that the bombing wouldn't stop terrorism. His opponents agree. "This is carpet bombing and not targeting whomever they want," says Hatta Ramli, a senior member of the Malaysian opposition party, Pas, criticizing the air strikes. "Innocent people are being killed, and we see it as bully tactics by a great power against defenseless Afghans."

In the Philippines, Murad Ibrahim, a leader in the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front, which is negotiating a peace deal with Manila, says the attacks on Afghanistan will have no bearing on the talks. "We don't want to complicate the Moro problem with this international issue," he says. Still, there is no doubt that anti-U.S. feelings run deep, whether or not extremists are on the rise.

Most U.S. strategic analysts agree that eliminating bin Laden could significantly weaken his Al Qaeda network. But in the process, the U.S. will make many new enemies. "The people America is bombing right now are the people in the cities," says retired Pakistani officer Mohammad Yousaf, who fought a covert war for Pakistan's intelligence service in Afghanistan in the 1980s. "These people are more educated and more likely to be sympathetic to the West. America will lose its allies."

Given such differences, is the clash of civilizations between Islam and Christianity inevitable? No, says Simon Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs. "If it quietens down after [a few days] and it clearly becomes an attempt to flush out Osama bin Laden and the Taliban," he says, "there will still be some resistance, some doubts and fears among Muslims in the region. But it will be easier to say that it is not a war on the Afghan people and not a war on Islam." So far, the protests in Indonesia and Pakistan have been relatively small. Both Jakarta and Islamabad seem capable of keeping the radical Muslims under control. But if the bombing continues, the U.S. will face an increasingly uphill battle to win hearts and minds - and may well find itself playing into the hands of the very terrorists it is trying to eliminate.